The traditional landscape of mainstream media has undergone a seismic shift in the internet age, with the rise of online platforms leading to a sharp decline in the power and influence of legacy media institutions. This transformation has been characterized by a desperate bid for relevance, as evidenced by the vigorous promotion of censorship and the presentation of legacy outlets as indispensable “journalists.”
Overall
- The disruptive power of AI will sweep through the information space in 2024, impacting the reliability of information and sustainability of media.
- Distribution is set for major upheaval with Search Generative Experiences (SGE) and AI-driven chatbots reducing referral traffic to established news sites.
- Optimistic publishers look to build direct relationships with loyal customers and diversify revenue streams.
Challenges
- Declining advertising revenue, rising costs, and slowing subscription growth remain major concerns.
- Legal harassment, news fatigue, and selective news avoidance pose challenges for sustainable news consumption.
- AI for content creation is considered the biggest reputational risk.
Tech Trends
- Search with AI integration (SGE) may significantly reduce referral traffic from search engines.
- WhatsApp, Instagram, and video networks (TikTok, YouTube) are getting prioritized for traffic acquisition.
- AI assistants may gain traction for news access, raising copyright concerns.
- Paid subscriptions may be explored by big tech platforms.
Business Strategies
- Building direct relationships with users through newsletters, podcasts, and websites will be crucial.
- Bundling news with non-news content and offering “lite” or lower-cost subscriptions will be explored.
- Partnerships with other publishers or providers for bundled offerings may emerge.
- Differential pricing for subscriptions based on usage or negotiation is expected.
Future Events
- More newspapers are expected to stop daily print production.
- Big tech platforms will lean further into paid business models.
- AI’s impact on journalism will be a major point of discussion and debate.
In recent years, the power and influence of traditional mainstream media has sharply declined with the rise of online platforms. Some argue that this seismic shift was an existential threat that motivated much of the media’s behavior over the past decade.
Silicon Valley entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan contends that attacking the internet was a kind of “protectionism” by legacy outlets whose business models were being disrupted. Their vigorous promotion of censorship and presenting themselves as indispensable “journalists” was a desperate bid to remain relevant, in his view.
Evidence validates this premise. Trust in mainstream media institutions like newspapers has collapsed. The internet has enabled new distribution channels like Substack and Twitter where journalists can reach audiences directly without gatekeepers.
Michael Shellenberger, an independent journalist, highlights how the media spread misinformation in order to promote censorship of social media. But now even mainstream publications like The Atlantic are conceding they got key facts wrong in prior attacks on tech platforms.
The old gatekeeper model has been replaced by a new era where legacy media no longer controls narratives or filters information flows. Their former monopoly over news and information has been shattered for good.
One forecast suggests that the vast majority (as much as 90%) of online content may be synthetically generated by 2026.
Declines in referral traffic from Meta and X may further reduce audience flows to established news sites.
In a survey by Oxford, the majority of publisher respondents (77%) say they’ll work harder on building direct links with consumers via websites, apps, newsletters, and podcasts – channels over which they have more control.
Expect more reduction in referral traffic as AI becomes integrated into search engines and other gateways. Media owners may build more barriers to content and engage expensive lawyers to protect their IP.
